Multilinealidad del desarrollo y Estado estratégico en la transición hacia un orden global fragmentado
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62776/rse.v3i2.78Palabras clave:
Estado, desarrollo económico, relaciones internacionales, innovación, soberaníaResumen
Este artículo analiza las trayectorias de desarrollo económico y estatal en el contexto del orden internacional multipolar, impugnando la visión unilineal del progreso. Mediante un diseño cualitativo comparativo que abarca catorce casos —seleccionados para maximizar la variación tipológica— se examina cómo la capacidad estratégica del Estado y la gestión de la interdependencia condicionan el éxito industrial y tecnológico. El desarrollo sostenido se define operacionalmente como la transformación estructural que combina el aumento de la complejidad económica, reducción de dependencias críticas y mejora verificable del bienestar durante al menos dos décadas. Los resultados demuestran que dicho desarrollo no emerge de la apertura de mercados sino de procesos de construcción institucional que integran planificación, protección selectiva e inversión en conocimiento. Se identifican siete regularidades empíricas transversales (R1–R7), validadas mediante una matriz de evaluación sistemática de 14 casos. En el contexto geopolítico de 2026, marcado por la emergencia de la Doctrina Donroe, la soberanía cognitiva —capacidad de producir y controlar el conocimiento y los datos propios— se convierte en una condición indispensable para superar la dependencia estructural. Se propone el Modelo de Desarrollo Estratégico Autónomo (MDEA), que incorpora la transición energética y los minerales críticos como eje transversal para el Sur Global.
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